The 2023 Chicago Cubs didn’t make the playoffs and since then they’ve had one of the most disappointing offseasons in Major League Baseball.

Even with those two pieces of information Thomas Harrigan recently picked ten teams that can defy their playoff odds in 2024 and the Cubs are at the very top of the list.

Based on Fangraphs’ projected standings the Cubs enter the season with a 36.6% chance of making the playoffs. Obviously, that number will go up if the front office or ownership decides to “intelligently” spend on either Matt Chapman or Cody Bellinger, but for now, the team that is currently constructed has a 36.6% chance of making the playoffs.

Keep in mind, this team plays in a division with the team that had the number one pick last season (Pittsburgh), a team whose manager we just stole (Milwaukee), a team that is counting on Lance Lynn for important starts (St. Louis), and a team whose entire team seems to have as much experience combined as Yan Gomes (Cincinnati).

Harrigan posits that the Cubs could defy those odds by getting players like Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Morel, and Pete Corw-Armstrong to outperform their projections and for Shota Imanaga to meet his absurd hype levels.

While it’s nice to see the Cubs on this list, the aforementioned Milwaukee Brewers (who found money in the couch cushions that the Cubs could not for Rhys Hoskins) are also on the list at 35.4% and Cincinnati appears on the list as well at 31.5%.

The thing that will move the needle the most in getting this team to the playoffs though is re-signing Bellinger. Regardless of whether the contract he signs is team-friendly or a classic Boras overpay, Bellinger is the difference maker in this team making the playoffs, so it’s time to decide if keeping the window open in a hypothetical future is more important than actually opening that window to begin with.